AAP and Arvind Kejriwal: What next for India’s biggest political startup and its founder after crushing Delhi defeat?

A fledgling political party that promised new beginnings and was granted the status of national party in April 2023 is in fear of losing that coveted title.

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s comprehensive victory in Delhi and the personal defeat of Aam Aadmi Party convenor and strongman Arvind Kejriwal during the electoral rout on February 8, have cast a shadow on the party’s fortunes outside its main base, Delhi.

A party that once became the biggest political startup of this century and attracted the best talents to sign up for a purely voluntary mission now stands at a crossroads from which it will become difficult to pull itself out.

There is little doubt that this setback will have ripple effects in Punjab, where the party has been in power since 2022, and Gujarat and Goa, where the AAP has a presence.

Says Rahul Verma, Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research: “There are certain things I can see. Not only has the AAP lost but its top leadership has been decimated. Even though they have held on to their vote share, the AAP is a party that has not seen a day without being in power. How do they adjust to the new situation? It can be certainly said that their expansion plans in Gujarat, Goa and other places must be put on hold.”

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The AAP’s nemesis in Delhi can be attributed to the nature of the capital’s half-state status. The continuing blame game between the Delhi government and the Centre for the past 10 years since power changed hands from the Congress to the BJP in the Centre and from the Congress to the AAP in Delhi, has had the two governments bickering over law and order, air and water pollution, and state revenues to name only a few issues.

While the AAP has accused the Centre of curtailing the state government’s power, rendering it unable to implement its policies, the BJP has accused the party of sacrificing Delhi’s progress over petty politics.

Economist Arun Kumar, Convener of the Economics & Ecology Committee of AAP in 2013, believes Delhi has voted for the BJP because the central government ensured it. Under Lt. Gov. VK Saxena, the four areas of reform that the AAP sought to introduce – water, electricity, health and education – were seriously impaired. Funds were not forthcoming, projects were being put on hold, there was a medicine shortage at mohalla clinics, and obstacles were thrown in the way every day.

“There was a lesson for Delhi. The BJP’s message was clear. If the AAP returned to power, expect the same contestations and delays. With the BJP promising not to stop any of AAP’s projects, the voters were served with a fait accompli,’’ he says, adding, “This is tantamount to blackmail.”

The biggest challenge for AAP now would be to hold on to their Punjab government. Campaigning in Delhi this month, the Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann said that all the AAP government’s promises have been fulfilled in his state. Such a claim will now be questioned as the AAP is set to complete three years in the state.

During the election campaign in Punjab, AAP’s key promises were 300 units of free electricity and a monthly stipend of ₹1,000 to women over 18. Despite implementing 300 units of free electricity within three months of forming the government, the state’s precarious financial condition has made fulfilling the ₹1,000 promise challenging. The electricity subsidy alone has caused the state’s power subsidy bill to soar to ₹23,000 crore

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“Delhi was Kejriwal’s pocket borough. He derived his strength from here. His massive defeat now means a weakening of his position in Punjab. The AAP in Punjab is not as strong as the AAP in Delhi. Neither is Bhagwant Mann a bigger leader than Kejriwal, who has clearly punched above his weight. We can wait and watch, but trouble lies ahead for the AAP as their top leadership has been decimated,” says political analyst Manisha Priyam.

With AAP’s defeat in Delhi, its hold over Punjab may weaken, allowing the Congress to regain lost ground. Beyond Punjab, AAP’s attempts to gain ground in BJP’s stronghold of Gujarat could also suffer a setback. In the 2022 Gujarat elections, despite BJP’s firm grip on the state, the AAP managed to secure a double-digit vote share, largely by eating into Congress’s support base.

According to Verma, much will now depend upon how Kejriwal and the AAP react to the new situation.

Analysts agree that AAP’s political strategies have often made the BJP uneasy. Over the years, the BJP has systematically worked towards weakening the AAP by initiating legal actions against its leaders and encouraging defections within the party. This trend is likely to intensify, with the BJP employing every possible means to dismantle the AAP.

Modi, during the last phase of the poll campaign in Delhi, made it clear that corruption cases in the liquor scam will be pursued, irrespective of the poll outcome. The BJP has reportedly begun preparations to send Kejriwal back to prison. On January 7, Delhi’s LG authorised an Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) raid at Kejriwal’s residence. ACB officials also conducted searches at the homes of AAP leaders Sanjay Singh and Mukesh Ahlawat.

Also Read: Delhi Election Results: What if AAP and Congress had joined forces against BJP?

Sources suggest central investigative agencies could escalate their legal proceedings against AAP leaders, including Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh, and Satyendar Jain. Except Singh, a Rajya Sabha MP, all the others have lost their elections.

The more important thing is whether questions will be asked of Kejriwal. Losers tend to discover rebels amidst their ranks all too suddenly. For a man who is used to winning every time, this is an entirely new situation for Kejriwal.