After Abu Qatal’s killing, is LeT chief Hafiz Saeed next? Experts weigh in

Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist Abu Qatal, who was chargesheeted by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) for his involvement in the January 2023 attacks in Rajouri, Jammu and Kashmir, has been shot dead in Pakistan, according to media reports.

Foreign affairs experts have speculated that Hafiz Saeed, the LeT founder and the mastermind behind the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, could face a similar fate soon.

In an interview with news agency ANI, foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdeva suggested that Abu Qatal’s death signals that those pursuing Hafiz Saeed and other terrorists are narrowing in on their targets.

Also Read: Who killed Abu Qatal, Hafiz Saeed aid and LeT terrorist, in Pakistan?

“Hafiz Saeed’s close aide was killed, which means those who are tracking them have reached quite close. It is said that those who live by the sword die by the sword, and Hafiz Saeed might as well have to face a similar fate. Abu Qatal was involved in a lot of attacks in Kashmir, Rajouri, Poonch, PoK,” said Sachdeva, who heads the independent thinktank, Imagindia Institute

Sachdeva speculated that Saeed might have tightened his security following his nephew’s assassination.

“Hafiz Saeed’s next step might be to increase his security and ask help from the Pakistani army, though they are already protecting him… No one can say who is behind this incident, but this could also have been possibly done by Pakistani authorities to defame India,” he added.

Commenting on reports of another person being injured in the attack, Major General Dhruv C Katoch (Retd.) suggested that it could be Hafiz Saeed himself.

“The other injured person has been admitted to the Pakistan military hospital, and this has created a buzz since Pakistan is very tight-lipped about the identity of the person, and some emerging reports suggest it is Hafiz Saeed,” Major General Katoch (Retd) told ANI. 

Major General Katoch (Retd) is one of the directors of India Foundation, an independent research centre. He added that no terrorist is truly safe in Pakistan, even with the Army’s protection and that they will eventually be “hunted down.”

NIA chargesheet

Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist Abu Qatal, charge-sheeted by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in connection with the January 2023 attacks in Rajouri, Jammu and Kashmir was reportedly shot dead in Pakistan after an assailant opened fire on his vehicle on the Mangla-Jhelum Road, local media reported on Sunday.

Also Read: Who was Abu Qatal? Lashkar-e-Taiba’s most wanted terrorist linked to deadly attacks in India killed in Pakistan

An armed guard of Qatal was also killed in the attack that took place on Saturday night, as reported by an Islamabad-based outlet, The News International.

Baloch insurgencies in Pakistan

The recent attacks by Baloch insurgents in Pakistan have revealed the extent of terrorism within the country and highlighted the military’s “lack of preparedness,” Major General GD Bakshi (Retd) stated on Sunday. He also criticized Pakistan’s long-standing use of terrorism as a state policy, asserting, “Pakistan has shot itself in the foot by making terrorism an instrument of state policy.”

Speaking with ANI about the recent attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) convoy in Balochistan- just a week after the Jaffar Express hijacking- Major General Bakshi said, “Till now, they were exporting terror. The vultures of terror that they had nurtured for outsiders are now destroying Pakistan itself.”

Also Read: India seeks extradition of 26/11 Mumbai terror attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed from Pakistan

He further said that this crisis is Pakistan’s own doing and that foreign countries, including India, cannot intervene in its internal conflicts. “This is the fault of Pakistan, and they have to face the consequences. Foreign countries cannot do anything about this. What can India do?” he said.

Major General Katoch (Retd) questioned the preparedness of the Pakistan military in handling the growing insurgency, saying that the army lacks the capability to defend all its territory. 

“It is about the BLA being able to carry out this attack so soon after the hijacking of the Pakistani train, and the Pakistani military is still figuring out how to react to this… I think they lack the capability to defend every piece of their territory, and there are going to be many attacks in the future that they may not be able to counter,” he said.

‘Political settlement is the only solution’

He suggested that Pakistan should make a political settlement with the Baloch people to prevent an escalating conflict that could leave the Pakistani army at a disadvantage.

“Their solution lies in coming to a political settlement with the Baloch people, failing which, the battle might surge into a serious confrontation where the Pakistani army might be the loser,” he said.

On reports of Baloch insurgents killing Pakistani Army personnel, foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdeva accused Pakistan of exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources while neglecting the region’s development. He said that this conflict might get worse in future.

Also Read: Explained: What is Pakistan’s Balochistan question?

“This was expected and will worsen in the future because Pakistan never gave attention to Balochistan and exploited its natural resources, outsourcing its mineral resources and assets to China for warm water ports, thinking of it as a barren land… Pakistan army started suppressing the people there and tormented them while there was already a lack of water and other basic necessities there,” Sachdeva said.

On Sunday, a terrorist attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) convoy in Balochistan’s Noshki district left five people dead, including three FC personnel and two civilians, Dawn reported.

Also Read: India asks Pakistan to extradite LeT’s 26/11 accused Hafiz Saeed

The banned Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for an attack involving an explosion followed by a suicide bombing, with security forces swiftly responding and killing four terrorists, including the bomber.

This incident comes just days after the BLA hijacked the Jaffar Express, a train traveling from Quetta to Peshawar through the strategic Bolan Valley.

The train, carrying over 450 passengers, including 200 security personnel, became the focus of a tense standoff between Baloch rebels and Pakistani security forces. The BLA claimed to have killed 214 hostages and criticized Pakistan’s “stubbornness” and “avoidance of negotiations” despite issuing a 48-hour ultimatum.

(With inputs from agencies)