Even before the Delhi assembly election results were out, people had started speculating whether “INDIA bloc” was signing its death warrant. Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah demanded that members of the bloc should get together to work out a framework for moving forward once the elections ended.
Abdullah was worried as bloc members Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress were contesting each other in Delhi. His apprehension proved right.
The bloc faces another litmus test in Bihar, where assembly elections are due in November-December. The Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress have been contesting elections jointly here. But key coalition members regret conceding far too many seats to Congress in the 2020 assembly elections.
Congress had managed to extract 70 seats for itself, but won only 19 of them at the last election. Tejashwi, in fact, missed the CM’s post by just 13,000 votes and 12 seats. Had the Congress delivered its part of the bargain, the political landscape of Bihar would have been different.
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In 2017, after losing the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, Samajwadi Party leaders also had the same lament. The same story played out in Tamil Nadu. That’s why at the last assembly election Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) gave the Congress only half the number of seats it was allocated in the previous election. Will Tejashwi adopt the same approach in Bihar this time?
The Congress is restricted to just three states—Telangana, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh—today and is increasingly dependent on allies for political relevance. Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu are prime examples. The party is consistently losing its ability to win elections on its own.
Congress supporters may feel uncomfortable but they should learn from arch-rival Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). They played second fiddle in many states such as Bihar for years. Even when the party had more legislators, they kept Nitish Kumar as the coalition leader in that state.
The Congress’s attitude presents a stark contrast. It refused to even make Nitish the convenor of INDIA Bloc, which made him return to the BJP fold.
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In Maharashtra, the story repeated itself. At the last assembly election, Congress frittered away a great opportunity. The party refused to accept Uddhav as the CM candidate and kept squabbling for more seats. This public wrangling dented the Mahavikas Agadhi’s image and that of Pawar-Uddhav duo. One needn’t be surprised if cracks appear in the coming months in the Mahavikas Agadhi.
Similarly, Arvind Kejriwal had been keen on an alliance with Congress in the Gujarat assembly elections, but was kept waiting. At the election, his party AAP secured 13% of the votes, at the Congress’ expense. AAP also hoped Congress would be favourably disposed towards it during the Haryana assembly elections. But AAP received the Gujarat treatment again.
This was why Kejriwal fielded his party’s candidates without bothering to consult with the Congress in Delhi. But in Delhi, Congress played the role AAP played against it in Haryana and Gujarat. AAP secured just 2% fewer votes than BJP, while Congress gained 2% votes in Delhi compared with the last assembly elections. Had AAP-Congress coalition retained the 2% votes, the political landscape of Delhi would have been quite different and INDIA bloc would have emerged stronger.
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Congress central command today has little effective control over state units. It is rumoured that Rahul Gandhi had been willing to fight the Haryana and Gujarat assembly elections in coalition with AAP. He was also okay to ally with AAP in Delhi. But state units insisted that Congress would do well on its own.
The party’s entrenched political families may make tall claims, but fact is that they have lost their clout for good.
The way Congress is trying to woo the other backward castes by insisting on a caste census can rattle leaders such as Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi, and M. K. Stalin who have created their political fortunes on the same vote bank.
The Congress is facing its most potent challenge since Independence in the form of the Modi-Shah combine. You may ask: When will Congress learn? The sad reality is even the Congress helmsmen are clueless.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.
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