Federal worker layoffs reach 250,000 as large-scale layoffs and budget cut deadline looms

The Trump administration’s push to drastically shrink the federal government shifts to a new gear Thursday, when agencies face a deadline to submit plans for large-scale layoffs and budget cuts. With them, the list of government job cuts that for weeks had been measured in the tens of thousands — and included retirements, deferred resignations, and selective firings — is expected to reach into the hundreds of thousands.

The prospective plans also will bring more clearly into focus how the downsizing could impact government services and reshape everything from the broader US economy to local communities.

Such job cuts inevitably have a downstream impact, according to analysts at Wolfe Research, LLC. They predict one layoff elsewhere in the economy for every two government jobs cut. “From a broad economic perspective, that in and of itself would not cause a recession,” said Wolfe’s chief economist, Stephanie Roth. “But it’s not insignificant either. I’d put it somewhere in between.”

Last month’s directive ordering the Reduction in Force plans, signed by Office of Management and Budget Director Russell T. Vought and Office of Personnel Management Acting Director Charles Ezell, didn’t specify a target percentage or number of employees. But it told agency administrators to consider cutting positions “not mandated by statute or regulation who are not typically designated as essential during a lapse in appropriations.”

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In past government shutdowns, that nonessential definition covered as much as 40% of the federal workforce—a share that in 2025 would represent more than 800,000 workers.

Whether and when the administration will disclose the layoff totals is unclear.

The job cuts so far have trickled out from both official and unofficial sources, and been marked by missteps including forcing remote workers to return to offices that lack enough workspace or even potable drinking water, and staffers being fired, rehired, then fired again.

Court Battles

The directives follow an executive order from President Donald Trump that asserted his administration needed to “eliminate waste, bloat, and insularity” across the government.

But dozens of outstanding legal challenges might scramble any plans, or even efforts to pinpoint a final headcount.

At a hearing Wednesday in a Baltimore federal court over last month’s abrupt firing of thousands of probationary employees, a Trump administration lawyer couldn’t say exactly how many lost their jobs.

“You don’t know?” US District Judge James K. Bredar asked the lawyer, Eric Hamilton.

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“I don’t know,” Hamilton replied.

“Does anybody in the government know?” the judge pressed.

“I don’t know, your honor,” Hamilton repeated.

Still, some plans have already been made public.

The IRS plans to cut as many as half of its nearly 100,000 workers, Bloomberg Tax and others have reported. Critics have warned about slowdowns in audits and enforcement and a potential uptick in tax cheats.

The Department of Defense could shed as much as 8% of its civilian workforce, or up to 76,000 staffers, sources familiar with the plans have told Bloomberg. Two-thirds of those let go might be probationary workers.

The Department of Veterans Affairs aims to return to its pre-pandemic staffing levels, which would require cutting as many as 80,000 jobs, according to an internal memo.

About half of the Education Department’s 4,100 workers will be dismissed, with many placed on leave by next Friday, the department announced March 11. Secretary Linda McMahon called the plan “a significant step toward restoring the greatness of the United States education system.”

The US Agency for International Development, the administration’s first and most prominent target, has already seen its Washington headquarters shuttered amid plans to lay off nearly all of its 10,000 workers.

The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration will cut more than 1,000 jobs after already losing hundreds of staffers this year through retirements, deferred resignations, or probationary worker dismissals.

The Social Security Administration will cut at least 7,000 staffers, according to multiple news reports. Its final RIF plan could include shedding as much as half of its 60,000-person workforce, the Associated Press reported. Presidential adviser Elon Musk has described waste in entitlement programs like Social Security as “the big one” when discussing areas worthy of cuts.

Administrators at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau were aiming to cut more than 1,100 workers from what had been a staff of 1,750 last fall, Bloomberg Law reported.

Several agencies have signaled plans to implement the layoffs within months, if not sooner. Some, including those that oversee health and Social Security, are giving employees the option to retire early and offering other staff up to $25,000 to leave.

Some federal workers have kept or returned to their jobs, thanks to court orders or decisions by independent mediators. But most of the legal challenges are still wending through the courts.

Next Step

Thursday’s plans are also just the first step in the process.

A second phase in what the administration has dubbed Agency Reduction in Force and Reorganization Plans, or AARPs, requires the same departments to submit by April 14 their consolidation plans. That includes identifying offices they intend to close or relocate to other, less expensive parts of the country.

About one-fifth of the federal workforce is based in the Washington region, so relocation mandates could lead to more staffing cuts.

“Right now, it looks like federal layoffs are going to cause a period of pronounced economic weakness in the DC metro area and be a headwind to job growth nationally,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “Comerica is forecasting for a step down in the pace of job growth over the next three to six months as the impacts of federal layoffs and spending cuts ripple out through the economy.”