Although Indian-Americans shifted to the right politically ahead of the 2024 US election, many remain concerned about what the future holds for US-India ties under a second Trump administration, as per the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS).
Donald Trump’s economic policies, particularly his protectionist stance and focus on “reciprocal taxes”, have put India-US trade relations under strain. Since returning to the White House, Trump has repeatedly criticised India’s high import duties, which he has said are “unfair” to American exporters.
His proposed tariffs on Indian exports could severely impact sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, which rely heavily on the US market.
Additionally, his administration’s stricter immigration policies, such as tightening H-1B visa requirements, could further affect India’s tech workforce in the US, thus further straining ties.
As per the IAAS report — conducted before the US presidential election results — many Indian-Americans are concerned about bilateral relations under the Trump administration. In fact, Indian-Americans rate the Joe Biden administration‘s record on India slightly better than the first Trump administration.
Thirty-four percent of respondents identified Biden as doing a better job, and 28 percent said Trump handled bilateral relations better during his first term. Roughly the same proportion, 26 percent, felt the presidents’ performances were generally the same.
In addition, respondents said bilateral relationship would have been more likely to prosper under a putative Kamala Harris administration compared to a second Trump administration.
The survey also asked respondents which American political party does a better job managing US-India relations.
A total of 41 percent of respondents said the Democratic Party while 24 percent named the Republican Party. One-quarter of all respondents perceived no difference between the two parties.
As the 2024 IAAS was fielded before the US election, it also asked two questions about the prospects for US-India ties under a putative Kamala Harris or second Trump administration. A total of 53 percent of respondents said US-India ties would become stronger if Harris had been elected, 15 per cent state they would get worse, and 32 percent reported they would not change.
Respondents were somewhat less bullish on prospects under a second Trump presidency. Forty percent reported ties would improve, 26 percent felt they would worsen, and 34 percent opined they would be unchanged.
On India’s trajectory
Compared to 2020, Indian-Americans are more bullish on India’s trajectory, said the IAAS report. Forty-seven percent of Indian-Americans believed that India is headed in the right direction, a 10 percentage point increase from four years ago.
The same share approved of Modi’s prime ministerial performance. Four in ten respondents said that India’s 2024 election made the country more democratic.
Forty-seven percent of respondents felt India is politically on the right track, 32 percent felt it is on the wrong track, and 21 percent cannot say.
These numbers represent a significant shift from the 2020 IAAS. Four years ago, respondents’ assessments were markedly more pessimistic, with 36 percent believing India was on the right track and 39 percent reporting it was on the wrong track.
The survey also asked about Indian-Americans’ views of India’s current policy direction.
Forty-six percent of respondents report that they are either strongly or somewhat supportive of the present government’s policies.
Thirty-six percent report they are somewhat or strongly critical of the government’s policies. Eighteen percent express no opinion. These numbers are broadly in line with respondents’ “right track/wrong track” assessments.
As per the report, one possible explanation for the relatively more bullish assessment of India in 2024 is that respondents were heartened by the results of the 2024 election, which resulted in a more evenly divided Parliament and greater dispersion of political power. Indeed, some observers interpreted the result of India’s 2024 general election as giving a fillip to democracy since the outcome produced a coalition government and more robust opposition in Parliament.
Four in ten members of the Indian American diaspora agree with this sentiment. Forty-one percent of respondents said the 2024 election made India much or somewhat more democratic. On the other hand, 28 percent took the opposite view — that India is much or somewhat less democratic in the aftermath of the general election. Fourteen percent of all respondents did not view the 2024 election as changing India’s democratic character in either direction.
BJP, PM Modi’s popularity
The BJP remains the most popular party among Indian-Americans, with 28 percent of respondents identifying with the party.
Twenty percent identified with the Congress party, and just 1 percent identified with a third party. In the 2020 IAAS, 32 percent of respondents supported the BJP, 12 percent supported the Congress, and 11 percent identified with a third party.
The data suggest that the BJP remains the diaspora’s favored party, but the gap with the Congress, has narrowed compared to 2020.
The survey further found that 47 percent of respondents approve of PM Modi’s job in office (36 percent strongly approve and 11 percent approve), while 34 percent disapprove (23 percent strongly disapprove and 11 percent disapprove). An additional 19 percent express no opinion either way.
PM Modi’s approval ratings among the diaspora have not budged much in four years. In 2020, 50 percent approved of the job PM Modi was doing (35 percent strongly approved and 15 percent approved) and 31 percent disapproved (22 percent strongly disapproved and 9 percent disapproved).
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