The IPL 2025 playoffs race has assumed a nice numerical symmetry. 2 teams are out, four playoffs spot to fill, eight teams in the race and 16 league matches to go. Let’s analyse the scenarios in detail.
Five teams – RCB, PBKS, MI, GT and DC – can still reach 18 points from this point. Scenarios listed below are based on that condition. The benchmark can drop to 16 points based on the actual results in the coming days.
The 8 contenders are divided into four groups
Group A: RCB and PBKS, 2 wins and an assured place
Royal Challengers Bengaluru – 16 points from 11 matches
Remaining matches: LSG, SRH, KKR
RCB will go to 20 points with 2 more wins
Punjab Kings – 15 points from 11 matches
Remaining matches: DC, MI, RR
PBKS will go to 18 points with 2 more wins
Two wins will be enough for these two teams to reach the playoffs.
Group B: MI, DC and GT, The tri series
Mumbai Indians – 14 points from 11 matches
Gujarat Titans – 14 points from 10 matches
Delhi Capitals – 12 points from 10 matches
The three teams play each other in the coming days.
Two wins should be enough for MI and GT unless all three of them finish on 18 points. MI currently have the best Net Run Rate among the three teams. DC lost three of their last four matches. They also have an inferior net run rate (+0.362) compared to GT (+0.867) and MI (+1.274). They would ideally want to avoid the five teams with 18 points scenario. DC should win three games and hope MI or GT fall short of 18 points.
Group C: KKR and LSG, Win everything and get favours from others
KKR have 11 points from 11 matches, remaining matches: CSK, SRH, RCB
LSG have 10 points from 11 matches, remaining matches: RCB, GT, SRH
Winning all three games will take KKR and LSG to 17 and 16 points, respectively. They need lower-ranked teams – CSK, SRH and RR – to beat the higher-ranked teams so that they can sneak through as the fourth placed team.
Group D: SRH, need massive favours from so many teams
Sunrisers Hyderabad must win their remaining three games and reach 14 points.
Two teams, RCB and PBKS have already crossed the 14-point threshold.
Mumbai Indians (14 points) and Gujarat Titans (14 points) play each other on Tuesday (May 6). The winner will be the third team to reach 16 points.
The loser of MI vs GT must lose all their games and get stuck on 14 points.
DC, LSG and KKR should also fall short of 14 points. It still may not be enough for SRH because of their poor net run rate. Their net run rate of (-1.192) is the worst among all 10 teams and it is unlikely for SRH to stay ahead of the net run rate of the loser of GT vs MI
Net run rate
Sunrisers Hyderabad: -1.192
Eliminated teams
Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals are out of the race.
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