The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government on Wednesday evening announced a slew of measures it decided to take against Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam terrorist attack that killed 26 and left several injured.
These measures were announced after the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by PM Modi, met at his official residence and took notice of the cross-border terror links with Pakistan.
The CCS announced five key retaliatory measures against Pakistan, one of which included the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 with immediate effect until “Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960?
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is an official agreement between India and Pakistan on who gets what while sharing water from the The Indus river system.
After nine years of talks between the two nations, and with the World Bank’s help, the treaty was finally signed by India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan on September 19, 1960.
As per the treaty, the Western Rivers were allocated to Pakistan and the Easter Rivers were allotted to India. The treaty also allows each country certain uses on the rivers allocated to the other.
The treaty outlines clear guidelines for equitable sharing of the river and its tributaries. You can read the complete Indus Waters Treaty here.
What was the need for IWT?
During the partition of India in 1947, the Indus River system became a point of potential conflict as it passed through both the countries – originating from Tibet and also touching China and Afghanistan – and drained into the Arabian Sea.
In 1948, Pakistan approached the United Nations after India briefly stopped the water flow. The UN suggested getting help, which led to the World Bank stepping in to mediate.
How is the water split between India, Pakistan?
India has unrestricted access to three eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – while Pakistan got the primary control over the three western rivers – Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
While India is still allowed to use water from the western rivers for limited uses like basic domestic needs, farming and generating electricity, it is Pakistan which has the lion’s share of the river system.
Pakistan, a downstream country, has access to almost 80% of the system’s rivers, while India gets just 20% of the rivers’ water. The Permanent Indus Commission was created to handle disagreements between the two nations.
How will suspending the treaty affect Pakistan?
These rivers are vital to Pakistan for its agricultural needs, especially in the Punjab and Sindh provinces. The river system also serves as a principal water source for Pakistan.
Stopping the water flow to Pakistan would mean adversely for its agricultural sector, which contributes 23% to Pakistan’s national income and supports 68% of its rural inhabitants. The sector also employs 37-42% of the country’s labour force, a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said.
The report also said the Indus Basin is Pakistan’s major aquifer and that the Indus River and its tributaries attract most of the settlements, with Punjab province being the most densely populated region.
About 70% of Pakistan’s exports are directly or indirectly derived for agriculture. About 47% of Pakistan’s national land is agricultural land, higher than the global average of 38%. More than 82% of the cultivated land is irrigated, and the remaining is rainfed.
Needless to say, any interruption to the water flow will significantly impact Pakistan and its agriculture sector, likely leading to lower crop yields, food shortages, and economic instability.
Pakistan already facing severe water crisis
According to an International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) report, Pakistan is already facing a severe water crisis due to climate change, rapid population growth, overuse of resources, and inefficient water management.
“The country’s per capita water availability has drastically decreased, and it’s now categorised as water-scarce rather than water-stressed, ” the report said.
A Dawn News report, published in March this year, said that depeleting reservoirs are pushing the country toward disaster. “Pakistan is facing a severe water crisis. Climate change, mismanagement, and depleting reservoirs are pushing the country toward disaster. With major dams nearing dead levels and agriculture at risk, food insecurity and inflation are rising. Cities like Karachi and Lahore are already experiencing shortages,” it said.
Blocking the water from the Indus River system is only going to aggravate Pakistan’s already worsening water crisis. This decision will also leave Pakistan with fewer options to manage its water needs.
How can India block the flow of water to Pakistan?
The treaty not only allows India to develop 13.4 lakh acres of irrigation in Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, but allows it to store 3.60 million acre-feet water from the three western rivers Pakistan has been allotted under the treaty.
Moreover, India is also allowed to build run-of-river dams on these three western rivers – Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. However, according to the treaty, this can only be done without blocking the flow.
Keeping in accordance with the treaty, India built three “run-of-the-river” dams, meaning minimal water storage projects on Jhelum river. The Uri Dam, located in the Baramulla district of Jammu and Kashmir has a hydroelectric power station. The Uri-II Dam, also in Baramulla, is another hydroelectric project, and the in Bandipora district of Jammu and Kashmir, India has the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project.
On Chenab, India has built several dams for hydroelectric power generation. The first hydropower porject built by India under the Indus Waters Treaty was the Salal Dam (Salal Hydroelectric Power Station) in Jammu and Kashmir’s Reasi district.
The Baglihar Dam (Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project) is located in Ramban with two stages of 450 MW each. In the Kishtwar district of Jammu and Kashmir, India has the Dul Hasti Hydroelectric Plant, and Ratle Hydroelectric Plant, an under-construction power station.
There are several other hydropower projects in the pipeline on the Chenab river and its tributaries.
Now that India has decided to suspend the treaty in the wake of the deadly Pahalgam attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, this provision gives India an advantage of temporarily blocking the flow of the western rivers waters to Pakistan.
(With inputs from agencies)
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