Trump’s tariff gambit: Vague demands, quick victories, and uncertain concessions – What does he really want from Canada and Mexico?

US President Donald Trump has long wielded tariffs as a blunt instrument of economic pressure, yet his exact demands often remain a mystery—allowing him to declare victory when he sees fit.
The art of the vague demand
Trump has pressed Canada and Mexico to curb migrant flows and crack down on fentanyl shipments. But when asked what, if anything, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could do to avoid tariffs, Trump’s response was characteristically ambiguous: “I don’t know.”
Yet, on Monday, Trump announced a 30-day delay in imposing tariffs, citing unspecified concessions from both countries. Canada, he claimed, had appointed a “fentanyl czar” and launched a joint strike force against organized crime. Mexico, he added, agreed to reinforce its border with 10,000 National Guard troops.
Were these real concessions?
Despite Trump’s triumphal framing, neither measure appeared to be a major policy shift. Trudeau highlighted that Canada’s efforts—deploying technology and personnel at the border—were already in motion under a $1.3 billion plan. Federal data also shows that only a fraction of fentanyl enters the US via Canada.
Meanwhile, Mexico had already ramped up enforcement prior to Trump’s threats. Under President Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexican forces have seized large quantities of fentanyl and dismantled illicit labs. US drug fatalities even declined last year after years of increases.
Trump’s strategy: Keep them guessing
The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s demands appears to be a deliberate strategy. Former US ambassador to Panama John Feeley noted, “He thrives in chaos, he thrives in uncertainty… You’re making a mistake if you think he’s sitting there with a spreadsheet. He’s sitting there looking at headlines.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted Trump had been “astoundingly clear” about his tariff logic, pointing to the “illegal surge of deadly drugs and of human beings.”
But Canada has consistently argued it was already doing what Trump was asking for. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly even presented US officials with a time-lapse video showcasing border security enhancements. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, acknowledged Canada was “improving” but said Trump still “does not feel like they’ve done enough.”
Mexico’s move: A win for both sides?
Mexico’s promise to increase border enforcement is expected to bolster Trump’s immigration crackdown. While the US has long urged Mexico to step up security, Sheinbaum’s government had already deployed 10,000 troops without facing tariff threats. Now, Leavitt says the move will be permanent.
Trump’s aggressive tactics have already yielded results elsewhere. He threatened Colombia with tariffs for refusing to accept deported migrants—Colombia swiftly relented.
The political payoff
Migration Policy Institute President Andrew Selee suggests that both Trump and Sheinbaum benefit from the tariff drama. Trump can tout “winning” more border troops, while Sheinbaum can project toughness in negotiating with Washington.
“The Mexican government would like to know what the end game is,” Selee said, “but the fluid nature of the negotiation probably helps both sides.”