What Steph Curry’s New Job Means for College Sports Cinderellas

(Bloomberg Opinion) — The NCAA men’s basketball tournament tips off next week, and the odds of an exciting Cinderella run by one of the lower-seeded teams has never felt more remote. The problem is that the underdog schools that might go on a win streak are increasingly losing players to name brand schools with the resources to recruit and pay them.

NBA legend Stephen Curry wants to do something about it. On Monday, he signed up to serve as the assistant general manager for basketball at Davidson College, his alma mater. He’ll still play for the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, but during his spare time he’ll help start an eight-figure fund to recruit talented players to Davidson.  

For Davidson, it’s a dream outcome that should keep the school relevant on the court for years to come. But for other small schools, Curry’s one-of-a-kind presence is a blunt reminder of just how hard it will be to remain competitive in the new era of pay-to-play college sports.

Nobody loves an underdog like a college hoops fan. According to a 2013 peer-reviewed study of men’s tournament television audiences, Final Four matchups featuring at least one Cinderella have a 35% larger TV viewership than matchups featuring two dominant schools. But you don’t need decade-old studies to know this. During the social media era, nothing gets what used to be known as Sports Twitter more excited than a bracket-busting upset.

It’s not hard to understand why. It’s metaphorical class warfare, translated to the court and office pool brackets. So-called blue blood basketball programs like Duke and Kentucky can spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the coaches and facilities that attract top talent. Lower-profile schools like Davidson, many of which play in less prominent conferences, can’t.

Nonetheless, every few years a small conference program manages to spot a talent that the powerhouse schools overlooked. With the right teammates, and a year or two of on-court seasoning, that player can help the overlooked school set itself up for an unexpected NCAA tournament success.

A young Curry at Davidson College is a good example. When he came out of high school in the mid-2000s, the future NBA superstar didn’t receive a single scholarship offer from a major Division I college basketball program. Lacking options, he went to Davidson (which then enrolled fewer than 2,000 students). Curry had a stellar freshman season that set him and his teammates up for a legendary Cinderella run during his sophomore year. They not only reached the Elite Eight; they came within two points of the Final Four.

Nearly two decades later, it’s almost impossible for Davidson or any other small school to repeat the feat. Two factors come into play. First, as of 2021, the NCAA allows basketball players and other athletes the option to transfer to another school and play immediately (previously, transfers had to sit out a year). Second, the NCAA now allows athletes the right to earn money from their name, image and likeness rights. This prompted schools and motivated alumni to organize pools of money (so-called collectives) that recruit and pay top athletes.

The combination created a kind of college sports free agency. Along the way, it’s given top-tier schools something they didn’t have before: a means to lure once-overlooked players away from the lower-profile schools that recruited them.

For example, in the 2023-24 season, JT Toppin, a versatile, athletic forward, had a breakthrough freshman season for the University of New Mexico and led his team to an NCAA tournament appearance. However, rather than return for his sophomore year, Toppin transferred to Texas Tech. The Albuquerque Journal reported that he and his representatives expected he would receive an NIL offer “at or above $500,000.” At the time of writing, Texas Tech, led by Toppin, is the ninth-ranked team in the country.

Another change is on the horizon that will make it even harder for lesser-resourced schools to hold onto their talented players. This spring, a court will likely approve a legal settlement that — among other provisions — will allow DI schools to begin paying athletes directly for their NIL. Those that opt into the system will be subject to a formal salary cap of roughly $20.5 million (the money can be shared across all sports, but at most schools, football followed by men’s basketball are expected to get most of it). Bigger athletic departments, like Texas Tech’s, which, according to Sportico, generated $146.8 million in the 2022-23 season, will have an easy time absorbing those costs. But their smaller counterparts lack the media deals, alumni numbers and stadiums that bring in college sports revenue at bigger schools and conferences.

The University of New Mexico, for example, brought in $47.7 million during the same period. Curry will certainly help Davidson (which doesn’t disclose its financials) on that front. But other NBA legends with connections to lesser-known athletic departments are in short supply.

In the end, young players will naturally gravitate to the school that offers them the best overall opportunity and compensation package. More often than not, that will be the prominent school. The result will be more parity and better competition at the top end of the bracket. It also means that athletes, long denied pay, will finally get their worth.

But Cinderellas, long one of the most thrilling reasons to watch the NCAA tournament, will be increasingly absent from the ball.More From Bloomberg Opinion:

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Adam Minter is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the business of sports. He is the author, most recently, of “Secondhand: Travels in the New Global Garage Sale.’

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