Ending a long, 27-year wait, the BJP has secured a comfortable win with 48 of the 70 assembly seats—an enormous leap from the mere eight it held previously. Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has suffered a stunning collapse, plummeting from 62 seats to just 22.
Read this | The battle for Delhi: It is Kejriwal’s suvidha vs Modi’s vikas
Adding insult to injury for the AAP, Arvind Kejriwal lost his seat—the New Delhi constituency—to BJP’s Parvesh Sahib Singh, while former deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia lost in Jangpura.
This election was a contest between two distinct narratives—there was the AAP’s big social welfare, freebie push, which has a fan base among the economically disadvantaged sections, and then there was the development model the BJP under Modi has espoused and which has been the prime minister’s hallmark since he emerged as a national force in 2013.
In fact, the prime minister’s pre-election launch of multiple infrastructure projects in Delhi underscored this approach. In the end, the Delhi voter called out AAP for the glaring gap in its governance model — a complete lack of focus on infrastructure and a lopsided focus on doles.
Yet, despite its dramatic fall, AAP’s vote share remains significant, reflecting its continued appeal among economically and socially weaker sections of Delhi’s electorate. According to the Election Commission of India, AAP secured 43.21% of the vote, down from its 53.6% in 2020. Meanwhile, the BJP’s share surged to 47% from 38.5%.
The Congress, meanwhile, has scored its third duck in a row, with a slight improvement in vote share—from 4.3% to 6.43%.
The BJP surge
There were essentially three big factors that worked for the BJP in Delhi, bringing it victory in the assembly that has remained elusive for nearly three decades.
First, Modi’s personal popularity in Delhi remains unmatched. This is evident from the BJP’s three consecutive top-notch performances in the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi under Modi, where it won all seven seats. What, however, worked in its favour this assembly election was an obvious anti-incumbency sentiment against the AAP, and serious lapses Kejriwal’s governance model, bringing Modi’s approach to the fore. Even AAP voters on the ground were clear about one preference—Modi in the Centre.
Read this | What BJP gained—and regained—with the latest state results
For BJP voters, meanwhile, the choice was clear—voting in Modi’s name. They didn’t care about the absence of a BJP chief ministerial face. “Modi ki guarantee hai“, they said. At the end of the day, the prime minister was yet again BJP’s biggest trump card.
Second, the middle class and upper middle class seem to have gone decisively with the BJP. The very jarring lack of infrastructure development under Kejriwal, AAP’s constant run-ins with the Centre, and to some extent, the latest Union budget’s tax cuts have collectively given BJP a significant advantage.
In fact, for the middle and upper middle class, Kejriwal with his anti-corruption and disruptive approach was more of a romantic idea than a governance choice. With ten years in power, the AAP seems to have lost the sheen among this segment.
Third, sheer fatigue with an incumbent of 10 years gave the BJP—the only other big contender—a massive advantage, and the BJP’s organization, cadre base and the tentacled Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) gave it the heft the AAP lacked.
The AAP fall
It has been a complex election for the AAP to fight—anti incumbency, its top leaders being imprisoned and lack of administrative experience all weighed heavily against it. But for Kejriwal and his party, there are two big takeaways.
One, a skewed governance model with an over emphasis on handing out benefits while ignoring development has its limitations. Several voters on the ground, including those who voted for AAP in the earlier assembly elections, pointed out big gaps — from no infrastructure growth, to absence of focus on cleaning the Yamuna and tackling pollution. Roads, drainage and civic issues were recurring complaints, working against the Aam Aadmi Party.
Two, while its base among the poor remains strong, AAP is now fumbling as it climbs up the economic ladder. The BJP was waiting to jump in as this happened, and the AAP did precious little to arrest that.
The Congress consistency
Meanwhile, with a third duck in a row, the Congress has shown some remarkable, but unenviable, consistency.
The party was never really in the fray. Voters on the ground dismissed it, even while remembering its former chief minister Sheila Dikshit with adulation. The Congress has been unable to build on her legacy and effective governance model, frittering away any advantage it could have had.
It gave no real reason for the voter to look towards it as an alternative to the AAP or the BJP, failing to build an effective narrative.
The what next
From a setback in the Lok Sabha elections to three assembly polls wins in a row — Haryana, Maharashtra and now Delhi, the BJP has shown its ability to fight back, giving it a fillip ahead of elections in over the next few years, from Bihar to West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. With this win, the BJP top leadership is likely to put in every effort possible to bring an infrastructure revolution in the national capital, giving it a visible makeover.
Also read | Delhi poll results in charts: BJP poised to beat AAP
But the biggest question mark is on the AAP, for which this was a battle of survival. The BJP, even with an emphasis on vikas, is not likely to drop its other big strong point — jan kalyan (welfare). Arvind Kejriwal, therefore, will be forced to reimagine his politics, while holding on to and building on his party’s still formidable voteshare.
About The Author
